A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
